Lawrence Park house prices rose sharply in the last quarter of 2015, as compared to the last quarter of 2014. In Q4, 2014, the price of all Lawrence Park house sales averaged $1,393,311. In Q4, 2015, the average price had risen to $1,546,732 – a rise of 11%. In Q4, 2014, 7 properties sold for $2 million or over; in Q4, 2015, that number had risen to 9.
In a balanced real estate market, (one that favours Buyer and Seller equally) there are enough properties listed for sale to satisfy the number of Buyers who would cycle through the market in 3 months. In December, 2015, Lawrence Park had only enough listings to satisfy 1.9 months’ worth of Buyers. The tightness in the neighbourhood’s market is seen not only in the rising prices, but in the falling number of sales. In Q4, 2014, 63 houses sold in Lawrence Park. In Q4, 2015, the number of sales had dropped to 56.
This lack of supply also showed up in the local high-rise market. The average sale price for a Lawrence Park condominium in Q4, 2014 was $678,900. In Q4 2015, a condo in the same area had an average sale price of $494,250. Of the 11 condominiums sold in Q4 2014, 2 of them sold for $1 million or more. In Q4 2015, only 4 condos sold, all at prices below $1 million. Here we see how a shortage in the quantity and quality of supply can create counter intuitive statistics!
It is a good bet that 2016 will see an ongoing demand for Lawrence Park homes. Empty nesters wishing to downsize in the area will continue to scour the market for condominiums of over 1,500 square feet. Meanwhile, the next generation of young professionals seeking a good family neighbourhood will continue to find Lawrence Park attractive. More local development is needed if the empty nesters wanting large condominiums are going to be able to move. A rise in the supply of suitable condos would increase the number of houses to buy and go a long way to taking the stress and frustration out of the market. Until then, many potential downsizers will stay put and the Lawrence Park real estate market will remain one of high demand and low supply.